Contrary to the predictions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure, empirical evidence suggest that the term spread between long and short rates fails to forecast future long term rates although its forecasts of future short term rates are in the correct direction. This...

Evidence that the term structure of interest rates does not satisfy the expectations hypothesis has been reported in a number of papers. However the nature and degree of this rejection is very sensitive to the exact specification of the tests. In this paper, we identify a source of small sample...

The main aim of this paper is to test the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure (REHTS). Existing empirical studies of the REHTS provide inconsistent evidence. Tests based on the local expectations hypothesis (LEH) version of the REHTS tend to be far less supportive than those...

This papaer evaluates analysts' consensus long run earnings growth forecasts. It is shown that the correlation between forecast earnings growth and actual earnings growth is extremely low. Consistent with other studies, forecast earnings growth is found to be too optimistic. This is illustrated...