Sticking with the status quo was only one option under debate among monetary experts in the lead-up to renewal of the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting mandate, which was announced this week. Several other routes were available. Two of them – namely, targeting nominal GDP or targeting...

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are four-fold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast...

This paper illustrates some of the most important insights of the literature on international fiscal and monetary policy coordination. It notes that the analysis of international policy interactions is enriched by taking the incentives in the domestic policy process into account. These...

This paper surveys the recent literature on the theory of macroeconomic policy. We study the effect of various incentive constraints on the policy-making process, such as lack of credibility, political opportunism, political ideology, and divided government. The survey is organized in three...

In this paper we compare the effects of monetary policy on output and prices in the G-7 countries using a parsimonious macroeconometric model comprising output, prices and a short-term interest rate. We identify monetary policy shocks by assuming that they do not affect real output...

An independent currency and a flexible exchange rate generally helps a country in adjusting to macroeconomic shocks. But recently in many countries, interest rates have been pushed down close to the lower bound, limiting the ability of policy-makers to accommodate shocks, even in countries with...

The first part of the paper analyzes the inflationary risks associated with price liberalization, the welfare costs of inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the low credibility of stabilization policies and a...

The Bank of Canada (BoC) should carefully monitor the money supply to better predict inflation and track the effectiveness of its monetary policy, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “Money Still Matters: How the Bank of Canada Might Better Monitor Inflation,” author Mati...

The Bank of Canada should consider publicly disclosing the discussions and dissenting opinions of members of its interest-rate-setting committee, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “Good Governance of Monetary Policy in Canada: Lessons from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Shadow...