This paper evaluates models with idiosyncratic consumption risk using Hansen and Jagannathan’s (1991) volatility bounds. It is shown that idiosyncratic risk does not change the volatility bounds at all when consumers have constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) preferences and the distribution...

This paper investigates whether changes in monetary transmission mechanism respond to variations in asset prices. We distinguish between bull and bear markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the monetary policy in relation to housing and stock...

This paper studies the interplay of fiscal policy and asset price returns of the United States in a time-varying-parameter vector autoregressive model. Using annual data from 1890 to 2013, we study the effects of dynamic shocks to both fiscal policy and asset returns on asset returns and fiscal...

This paper studies the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time varying parameter VAR. Using South African data since 1966 we are able to study the dynamic shocks of both fiscal policy and asset prices on asset prices and fiscal policy. This enables us to isolate specific periods in...

This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock prices on US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that over different horizons and over time, generally the housing price...

This study assesses how fiscal policy affects the dynamics of asset markets, using Bayesian vector autoregressive models. We use sign restrictions to identify government revenue and government spending shocks, while controlling for generic business cycle and monetary policy shocks. In addition...

This paper assesses the predictive ability of asset prices relative to other variables in forecasting inflation and real GDP growth in South Africa. A total of 42 asset and non-asset predictor variables are considered. Forecasts of inflation and real GDP growth are computed using both individual...

This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and per capita output across 50 US states and the District of Columbia over 1975 to 2012. A bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is applied on a trivariate VAR comprising of real house prices, real stock prices and real...

We introduce the information microstructure of a canonical noisy rational expectations model (Hellwig, 1980) into the framework of a conventional real business cycle model. Each household receives a private signal about future productivity. In equilibrium, the stock price serves to aggregate and...

The fall in US macroeconomic volatility from the mid-1980s coincided with a strong rise in asset prices. Recently, this rise, and the crash that followed, have been attributed to overconfidence in a benign macroeconomic environment of low volatility. This paper introduces learning about the...