The objective of this paper is to propose a model to assess risk for banks. Its main innovation is to incorporate endogenous interaction between banks, recognising that the actual risk to which an individual bank is exposed also depends on its interaction with other banks and other private...

The purpose of our work is to explore contagious financial crises. To this end, we use simplified, thus numerically solvable, versions of our general model [Goodhart, Sunirand and Tsomocos (2003)]. The model incorporates heterogeneous agents, banks and endogenous default, thus allowing various...

This paper illustrates some of the most important insights of the literature on international fiscal and monetary policy coordination. It notes that the analysis of international policy interactions is enriched by taking the incentives in the domestic policy process into account. These...

This paper surveys the recent literature on the theory of macroeconomic policy. We study the effect of various incentive constraints on the policy-making process, such as lack of credibility, political opportunism, political ideology, and divided government. The survey is organized in three...

In this paper we compare the effects of monetary policy on output and prices in the G-7 countries using a parsimonious macroeconometric model comprising output, prices and a short-term interest rate. We identify monetary policy shocks by assuming that they do not affect real output...

I address the issue of the `number` of International Monetary Equilibria that the international finance model of Geanokoplos and Tsomocos (2002) possesses. The mainstream competitive model has locally unique equilibria with respect to the real side of the economy; however, it manifests nominal...

An independent currency and a flexible exchange rate generally helps a country in adjusting to macroeconomic shocks. But recently in many countries, interest rates have been pushed down close to the lower bound, limiting the ability of policy-makers to accommodate shocks, even in countries with...

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy...

Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a, b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are four-fold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast...

The first part of the paper analyzes the inflationary risks associated with price liberalization, the welfare costs of inflation and the difficulties of East European central banks in pursuing non-inflationary policies. The main obstacles are the low credibility of stabilization policies and a...