This paper models the behaviour of a potential entrant into a monetary union where there is an inflation entry condition. In addition to making a monetary policy decision during a qualifying period, the potential entrant must make a decision about structural reform. The paper shows that the...

This paper explores under what conditions a European Monetary Union (EMU) is an optimum currency area. The scope for an EMU increases with convergence of structural and fiscal policies, small money holdings, a conservative European Central Bank, and dependent national central banks. How national...

The paper reviews and evaluates in a non-technical manner the economic and political arguments for and against the two fiscal convergence criteria written into the Treaty of Maastricht and its Protocols. In order to qualify for full membership in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), net general...

We explore endogenous monetary unification in the context of a model in which a country with serious structural distortions (and, hence, high inflation) is admitted into a monetary union once its economic structure has converged sufficiently towards that of the existing participants. If...

This paper reviews the history, economic rationale and main components of the project of establishing a monetary union in Europe by 1999. The adoption of a single currency is shown to be the best available option following the liberalization of capital movements. Much of the institutional design...

This paper analyzes performance of the transition economies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in terms of their convergence in selected macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis uses monthly data on industrial output, money aggregate (M1), consumer prices and producer prices...

Cross-section or short-panel econometric techniques typically used to examine Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect suggest that some degree of mean reversion exists, but may exaggerate the apparent randomness of corporate growth. We argue that a more natural way to explore the long-run...

This paper analyzes disparities among nominal and real exchange rate movements across the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 1991 to 1996. The method of analyzing such processes is to examine whether the differentials of exchange rate changes converge or diverge over time....

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions with a Bayesian model which allows us to use information in an efficient and flexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a common level of per-capita income found, for example, by Barro and Sala-i-Martin, is...

Recent estimates of convergence equations using panel data techniques tend to produce theoretically unpalatable results which run counter to the views prevailing in the literature. This paper argues that these results may be partly due to the difficulty of empirically separating short-term...