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Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan
International Monetary Fund - 2005
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400746
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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
International Monetary Fund - 1990
This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396173
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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
International Monetary Fund - 1990
This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396182
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Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR
International Monetary Fund - 2007
volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After … fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400988
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Interest Rate Volatility and Risk in Indian Banking
International Monetary Fund - 2004
The easing of controls on interest rates has led to higher interest rate volatility in India. Hence, there is a need to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404135
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Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets
International Monetary Fund - 2009
This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility … markets are found to a¤ect both conditional returns and volatility, with the e¤ects on volatility being more pronounced and … volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404285
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Exchange Arrangements and Foreign Exchange Markets : Developments and Issues
International Monetary Fund - 2003
This paper reviews developments and issues in the exchange arrangements and currency convertibility of IMF members. Against the backdrop of continuing financial globalization and a series of emerging market crises since 1997, there have been important changes in the evolution of exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404579
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Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade
International Monetary Fund - 1984
In View of the continuation of substantial movements in exchange rate relationships among major currencies, the recent increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about the possible adverse effects of exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014406218
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The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wageon Business Cycle Volatility : A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR
International Monetary Fund - 2008
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment … affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1 ….2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401464
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Trade Costs and Real Exchange Rate Volatility : The Role of Ricardian Comparative Advantage
International Monetary Fund - 2005
This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. We incorporate a multi … exchange rate volatility depends on relative technological differences and trade costs. These differences highlight a new … volatility. We then test the importance of this channel using a large panel of cross-country data over 1970-97, and find strong …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399797