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Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
tackle several measurement issues assessing a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models. We then examine the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459667
, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470997
We propose a comprehensive measure of systematic risk for corporate bonds as a nonlinear function of robust risk factors and find a significantly positive link between systematic risk and the time-series and cross-section of future bond returns. We also find a positive but insignificant relation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479944
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable-good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input-output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465670
We re-examine the Fama (1984) puzzle - the finding that ex post depreciation and interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests - for eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to February 2016. The rejection of the joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453372
We show that firms' idiosyncratic volatility obeys a strong factor structure and that shocks to the common factor in … idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) are priced. Stocks in the lowest CIV-beta quintile earn average returns 5.4% per year higher than … heterogeneous-agent model. In the model, CIV is a priced state variable because an increase in idiosyncratic firm volatility raises …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458588
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460556
A number of variables are correlated with subsequent returns on the aggregate US stock market in the 20th Century. Some of these variables are stock market valuation ratios, others reflect patterns in corporate finance or the levels of short- and long-term interest rates. Amit Goyal and Ivo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467212
Our paper reexamines the forecasting regressions which predict annual aggregate stock market returns net of the risk-free rate with lagged aggregate dividend-yield ratios and dividend-price ratios. Prior to 1990, the conditional dividend yield could reliably outperform the historical equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469927