new panel database for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change on … country performance between 1870 and 1939. Volatility was much more important for accumulation and growth than was secular …

Poor countries are more volatile than rich countries, and we know this volatility impedes their growth. We also know … that commodity price volatility is a key source of those shocks. This paper explores commodity and manufactures prices over … the past three centuries to answer three questions: Has commodity price volatility increased over time? The answer is no …