We build a general model for pricing defaultable claims. In addition to the usual ab-sence of arbitrage assumption, we assume that one defaultable asset (at least) looses value when thedefault occurs. We prove that under this assumption, in some standard market ltrations, defaulttimes are...

Using an options-based approach, we compute the value of the state guaranteefor the liability side of CS and UBS. The insurance premiums forthese two system-relevant banks are calculated in a dynamic setup from2004 until 2009 in quarterly steps for time horizons of one and five years.The model...

We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatilitydynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approachis based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that cantake into account the...

The persistence of financial instability calls into question the adequacy of the current regulatory regime. Acritical review of the three pillars at the core of current financial regulation exposes some structural flaws.[...]

Stein’s lemma is extended to the case where asset returns have skewed and leptokurticdistributions. The risk premium is still the negative of the covariance of theexcess return with the log SDF.[...] Paul Söderlind]

We study the pricing of political uncertainty in a general equilibrium model of government policy choice. We find that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in poorer economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection...

This paper proposes a panel data approach to modeling the risk premium in the term structure of interest rates. Specifically, we develop a fixed maturity/random time effects model that implies a time-invariant one-factor model. Our approach allows us to disentangle risk premia and unexpected...

A popular suggestion among emerging or transition economies is to 'dollarize' or 'euro-ize'; that is to adopt the currency of a larger, richer neighbour in order to import the monetary discipline and financial stability of that neighbour. This paper examines the pros and cons of that suggestion...

A single variable describes, day-by-day, what investors think about the state of Brazil's economy: the Brazilian component of the Emerging Market Bond Index, the Embi spread. This spread is the difference between the yield on a dollar-denominated bond issued by the Brazilian government and a...