forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian … stochastic volatility innovations; and (ii) strategies based on combined forecasts yield large economic gains over the random …

outside the Union. The analysis indicates the need to distinguish between short-term oscillations (i.e. volatility) and medium …

Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. The volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as money …-off between reduced exchange rate volatility and macroeconomic stability. …

(real or nominal, bilateral or effective) exchange rate volatility? If so, has this been at the expense of increased … interest rate volatility? How important have capital controls been for the operation of the EMS? Has the Exchange Rate … Mechanism reduced the volatility of unanticipated exchange rate changes? Has the EMS been effective in making ERM currencies …