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The UK pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market’s probability distribution of the future Deutsche...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791268
literature suggests that even in the absence of any ability to predict returns, holding options positions on the benchmark assets …. The enhancement from holding options can be substantial if the implied volatilities of the options are higher than the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468707
While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136573
This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504605
commodity-exporting countries. We show that the introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577805
empirically show that indeed portfolios of long Treasuries and short traded put options ("pseudo bonds") closely match the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145468
We study the effect of introducing a new security, such as a non-redundant derivative, on the volatility of stock-market returns. Our analysis uses a standard, continuous time, dynamic, general-equilibrium, full-information, frictionless, Lucas endowment economy where there are two classes of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114422
including global equities, global bonds, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and options. This predictability rejects a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083673
options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of …. The Paper, one of the first to use options data from an emerging market, finds that target zone credibility was poor prior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656384
We model the demand-pressure effect on prices when options cannot be perfectly hedged. The model shows that demand … demand helps explain the overall expensiveness and skew patterns of both index options and single-stock options. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067592