This paper builds a dynamic general equilibrium macro-finance model with two types of borrowers: entrepreneurs who want to produce and gamblers who want to play a lottery. It links central bank's interest rate policy to expected cash flows of both types. This link enables us to study how the...

Empirical research documents that temporary trends in stock price movements exist. Moreover, riding a trend can be a profitable investment strategy. Thus, the ability to recognize trends in stock markets influences the quality of investment decisions. In this Paper, we provide a thorough test of...

This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow...

Using novel real-time data on a broad set of economic fundamentals for five major US dollar exchange rates over the recent float, we employ a predictive procedure that allows the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals to evolve over time in a very general fashion. Our key findings...

High frequency arbitrage opportunities arise when the price of one asset follows, with a lag, changes in the value of another related asset due to information arrival. These opportunities are toxic because they expose liquidity suppliers to the risk of being picked off by arbitrageurs. Hence,...

This Paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime-switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989,...

Standard present-value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals. We test this key empirical prediction of present-value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to...

High frequency arbitrage opportunities sometimes arise when the price of one asset follows, with a lag, changes in the value of another related asset due to information arrival. These opportunities are toxic because they expose liquidity suppliers to the risk of being picked off by arbitrageurs....