This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

This paper focuses on the question of income convergence among countries. While the methodology used to determine convergence differs from the common cross-sectional approach, it corroborates Baumol's finding of a convergence club among the world's wealthiest countries. It also shows that there...

This paper examines the relationship between trade and income convergence by focusing on groups of countries comprising major trade partners. The majority of these groups exhibited significant convergence. Furthermore, a comparison of the trade-based groups with different, randomly selected,...

Many countries, both industrialized and developing, appear to have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority exhibit a significant structural break in their post-war growth rates. In nearly all of these cases the break was followed...

China and Brazil are two countries with continental dimensions, with differences in availability of natural resources, population sizes, and which have adopted different strategies of economic growth in the past. China has been following consistently a strategy of Export Led Growth (ELG), while...

Economy of Pakistan has shown resilience to sustain growth in recent years even with evident macroeconomic imbalances and structural problems. On the fiscal side, the country has one of the lowest taxes to GDP ratio, mounting fiscal deficit and consistently growing government borrowing. On the...

For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important `stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature...

The essence of this study is to verify the macroeconomic implications of cross-border remittances for economic growth prospects of small-open developing economies for the period, 1996-2006. A set of dynamic panel model, specified within the framework of Blundell-Bond Generalized Method of Moment...

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in Guatemala, with a particular focus on schooling. Results based on the error-correction methodology show a better educated labour force has a positive and significant impact on economic growth during 1951-2002. Consistent with micro...

In this paper, we made a brief review of the theory that analyzes the interaction between crime and economic growth, then we present two indices of insecurity for Mexico using the principal component factor analysis. An index called national public insecurity which refers to federal crimes (drug...