A model of optimum currency areas is presented using a general equilibrium model with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies,...

Two issues are discussed. The first is which countries might benefit from entry into EMU before the millennium. Germany and her immediate neighbours appear the most likely to gain; our knowledge is too uncertain to say whether all, some, or no countries would reap net economic benefits, however....

We use time-series methods to estimate a simple aggregate supply and demand model in order to analyse the comparative performance of fixed and flexible exchange rate systems and test competing hypotheses designed to explain shifts between exchange rate regimes. The paper provides a coherent...

The stability of the EMS depends crucially on the realignment expectations of market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and the institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the...