The paper starts from the premise that the debate on the ‘new architecture’ of the international financial system should be based on a theory that endogenizes the structure of countries' external liabilities. I present a model in which the maturity of a country's external sovereign debt is...

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

Stochastic general equilibrium models of small open economies with occasionally binding financial frictions are capable of mimicking both the business cycles and the crisis events associated with the sudden stop in access to credit markets (Mendoza, 2010). In this paper we study the...

In this paper we study whether policy makers should wait to intervene until a financial crisis strikes or rather act in a preemptive manner. We study this question in a relatively simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which crises are endogenous events induced by the presence of...

In response to the global financial crisis a new policy paradigm emerged in which capital controls and other quantitative restrictions on credit flows have become part of the standard crisis prevention policy toolkit. A new strand of theoretical literature studies the use of capital controls in...

This paper focuses on the question of income convergence among countries. While the methodology used to determine convergence differs from the common cross-sectional approach, it corroborates Baumol's finding of a convergence club among the world's wealthiest countries. It also shows that there...

This paper examines the relationship between trade and income convergence by focusing on groups of countries comprising major trade partners. The majority of these groups exhibited significant convergence. Furthermore, a comparison of the trade-based groups with different, randomly selected,...

Many countries, both industrialized and developing, appear to have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority exhibit a significant structural break in their post-war growth rates. In nearly all of these cases the break was followed...

For decades, the prevailing sentiment among economists was that growth rates remain constant over the long run. Kaldor considered this to be one of the six important `stylized facts' that theory should address, and until the emergence of endogenous growth models, this was a fundamental feature...

Monetary arrangements in Europe vacillated wildly over the last decade, and they may be expected to continue to do so over the next. The literature on this chaotic process has focused on issues of credibility. Here, we focus instead on the longer-run implications of Europe's choice of monetary...