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Exchange Rates, Innovations and Forecasting
Wolff, Christian C - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987
In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792277
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Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?
Kilian, Lutz; Taylor, Mark P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
We propose an exchange rate model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate movements and thus in some measure resolves Rogoff’s (1996) purchasing power parity puzzle. Our analysis reconciles the well-known difficulties in beating the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124271
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Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle
Lippi, Marco; Reichlin, Lucrezia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993
In this paper we argue that modelling the trend component in real GNP as a random walk is inconsistent with its interpretation as productivity growth. As an alternative we specify the trend as an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) process, whose impulse response function follows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136495
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Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles
Peel, David; Sarno, Lucio; Taylor, Mark P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
We fit nonlinearly mean-reverting models to real dollar exchange rates over the post-Bretton Woods period, consistent with a theoretical literature on transaction costs in international arbitrage. The half lives of real exchange rate shocks, calculated through Monte Carlo integration, imply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666576
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Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?
Sarno, Lucio; Taylor, Mark P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001
In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666659
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Agriculture and the economic transformation of Ethiopia:
Mellor, John W.; Dorosh, Paul A. - International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) - 2010
and services. Since agriculture currently dominates Ethiopia's economy and employment, however, there is an issue as to … grow more rapidly than the agricultural sector. The slower growth of agriculture, its relative decline, concern about the … difficulty of modernizing agriculture and pessimism about the potentials for technological change in agriculture suggest to some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850557
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Exploring agricultural levers for mitigating the overnutrition burden in India:
Sachdev, H.P.S. - International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850566
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The role of libraries in supporting agricultural policy research: Evidence from selected university and research institute libraries in Nigeria
Rhoe, Valerie; Oboh, Victor; Shelton, Peter - International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) - 2010
Agriculture is the largest contributor to the economic well-being of most Nigerians. For the agriculture sector to … also been shown that agriculture R&D could increase agriculture growth and reduce poverty (Fan 2008; Thirtle et al. 2003 …). Therefore, research-based evidence is important to guide decisions that affect Nigeria's agriculture sector and its people. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850581
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East African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis
Waithaka, Michael (contributor);  … - International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
The second of three books in IFPRI's climate change in Africa series, East African Agriculture and Climate Change: A … contributors of East African Agriculture and Climate Change present plausible future scenarios that combine economic and … biophysical characteristics to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850583
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A new era of transformation in Ghana: Lessons from the past and scenarios for the future
Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Kolavalli, Shashidhara - International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) - 2011
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933114