We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output...

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables and in the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility, while a combination of technology,...

We examine monetary policy in the euro area from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We discuss what theory tells us the strategy of Central banks should be and contrasts it with the one employed by the ECB. We review accomplishments (and failures) of monetary policy in the euro area...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an inflow of low-skilled workers into an economy where there is capital accumulation, endogenous labour supply and heterogeneous workers. We find substantial dynamic effects, with adjustments that resemble those triggered by a sudden disruption of...

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and interest...

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features of macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the "typical" transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal...

This paper examines whether or not consumption risk sharing occurs in a panel of industrialized countries. We derive the international consumption insurance proposition in a simple theoretical model and show how it should be modified in more complicated models. We analyse empirically the...

We study the effects of German unification on macroeconomic variables in a model with capital accumulation, skill differences and a welfare state. The integration of two economies differing in capital holdings and skill distribution is similar to a mass migration of low-skilled agents holding no...

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model that accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for...

This paper investigates the effects of introducing household production in an international real business cycle model. We show how a model driven by disturbances to the household production can account for some features of international cycles. A version of the model which considers shocks to...