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Leaving Home and Living Alone: An Historical Perspective

Wall, Richard - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987

continuities in household composition. In particular, households in the pre-industrial era were no more likely than present … resulted in a household composition which resembles that produced by early widowhood in the seventeenth century. Nor has the … to illustrate household types. The paper concludes by suggesting that a standard set of tables should be agreed upon and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497727

How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?

Favero, Carlo A.; Pagano, Marco; von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

The paper explores the determinants of yield differentials between sovereign bonds in the Euro area. There is a common trend in yield differentials, which is correlated with a measure of aggregate risk. In contrast, liquidity differentials display sizeable heterogeneity and no common factor. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124174

Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy

Darné, Olivier; Ferrara, Laurent - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061478

Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

Mönch, Emanuel; Uhlig, Harald - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067594

Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Gürkaynak, Refet S. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

We study the convergence of European bond markets and the anchoring of inflation expectations in euro area countries using high-frequency bond yield data for France, Germany, Italy and Spain. We find that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has led to substantial convergence in euro area sovereign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067658

Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area

Smets, Frank; Wouters, Rafael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

In monetary policy strategies geared towards maintaining price stability, conditional and unconditional forecasts of inflation and output play an important role. In this Paper we illustrate how modern sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, estimated using Bayesian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114391

Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area

Favero, Carlo A.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

In this paper we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the euro area by comparing a set of procedures that rely on different information sets and econometric techniques. In particular, we consider ARMA models, VARs, small scale semi-structural models at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504314

Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle

Artis, Michael J; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Proietti, … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

In this Paper we compare alternative approaches for dating the euro area business cycle and analysing its characteristics. First, we extend a commonly used dating procedure to allow for length, size and amplitude restrictions, and to compute the probability of a phase change. Second, we apply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504746

Stochastic Optimization and Worst Case Analysis in Monetary Policy Design

Rustem, Berc; Wieland, Volker; Zakovic, Stan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

In this paper we compare expected loss minimization to worst-case or minimax analysis in the design of simple Taylor-style rules for monetary policy using a small model estimated for the euro area by Orphanides and Wieland (2000). We find that rules optimized under a minimax objective in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791479

A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities

Coenen, Günter; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

In this Paper we estimate a small model of the Euro area to be used as a laboratory for evaluating the performance of alternative monetary policy strategies. We start with the relationship between output and inflation and investigate the fit of the nominal wage contracting model due to Taylor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791867