This paper analyzes identification conditions, and proposes an estimator, for a dynamic factor model where the idiosyncratic components are allowed to be mutually non-orthogonal. This model, which we call the generalized dynamic factor model, is novel to the literature, and generalizes the...

The Paper uses a large data set, consisting of 447 monthly macroeconomic time series concerning the main countries of the Euro area to simulate out-of-sample predictions of the Euro area industrial production and the harmonized inflation index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in...

This paper, along with the companion paper Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (1999), introduces a new model-the generalized dynamic factor model-for the empirical analysis of financial and macroeconomic data sets characterized by a large number of observations both cross-section and over time....

This paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading index of economic activity. The method provides a unified approach for the selection of the coincident and the leading variables, for averaging them into coincident and leading indexes and for the identification of turning...

In this paper, we present a summary of recent microeconometric results on the evaluation of the effects of active labour market policies on youth employment in France. We focus our discussion on three types of policies: (1) youth employment schemes for out-of-employment and low-skilled young...

This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is based on the generalized dynamic factor model proposed in Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2000), and takes advantage of the information on the dynamic covariance structure...

We use longitudinal individual wage and employment data in France and the United States to investigate the effect of intertemporal changes in an individual's status vis-à-vis the real minimum wage on employment transition rates. We find that movements in both French and American real minimum...

This paper offers a model of the interaction between composition of jobs and labour market regulation. Ex-post rent-sharing due to search frictions implies that ‘good’ jobs which have higher creation costs must pay higher wages. This wage differential distorts the composition of jobs, and in...

This paper offers an alternative theory for the increase in unemployment and wage inequality experienced in the United States over the past two decades. In my model firms decide the composition of jobs and then match with skilled and unskilled workers. The demand for skills is endogenous and an...

We use longitudinal individual wage, hours, and employment data to investigate the effect of the 1981 mandatory reduction of weekly working hours in France. A few months after François Mitterrand's election of May 1981, the government, applying its programme decided first to increase the...