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When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009365001

Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark: Relationship banking and conditionality lending in the London market for government debt, 1815-1913

Flandreau, Marc; Zendejas, Flores; Huitzilihuitl, Juan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper offers a theory of conditionality lending in 19th-century international capital markets. We argue that ownership of reputation signals by prestigious banks rendered them able and willing to monitor government borrowing. Monitoring was a source of rent, and it led bankers to support...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008554223

Betting the House

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

Is there a link between loose monetary conditions, credit growth, house price booms, and financial instability? This paper analyzes the role of interest rates and credit in driving house price booms and busts with data spanning 140 years of modern economic history in the advanced economies. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145419

The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083232

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084027

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008

Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

The crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008636377

Black Man’s Burden: Measured Philanthropy in the British Empire, 1880-1913

Accominotti, Olivier; Flandreau, Marc; Rezzik, Riad; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

Ferguson and Schularick (2006) recently provided a measure of the effect of Empire subjection on borrowing countries’ interest rates. They find this effect to be large and significant, ranging between 80 to 180 basis points. We argue that their methodology is inadequate and that their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666472

Crises and Punishment: Moral Hazard and the Pre-1914 International Financial Architecture

Flandreau, Marc - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

remedies that were commonly applied one century ago and find that the international financial world was fairly similar to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791208

Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It

Flandreau, Marc; Maurel, Mathilde - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791820

Caveat Emptor: Coping With Sovereign Risk Without the Multilaterals

Flandreau, Marc - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998

This paper studies how private banks dealt with sovereign risk before World War I. At that time there was no … period into the largest international bank in a country that was the second largest world creditor. In 1871, Crédit Lyonnais … it operated before World War I: given the prominence of Crédit Lyonnais on the international scene, its perceptions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656319