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expectations and long-term interest rates to a same-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008921778
In this paper we discuss how the forecasting performance of Bayesian VARs is affected by a number of specification … lag length and of both; compare alternative approaches to h-step ahead forecasting (direct, iterated and pseudo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854551
The estimation of large Vector Autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor. This is justified by the observation that the pattern of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083279
for forecasting GDP growth at short-term horizons in the euro area. We discuss three sets of empirical results. First we … forecast revisions. Third we design a pseudo out of sample forecasting exercise and examine point and density forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083444
The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we … propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US time series with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528528