This paper assesses the performance of Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) for models of different size. We consider standard specifications in the macroeconomic literature based on, respectively, three and eight variables and compare results with those obtained by larger models containing...

This paper considers Bayesian regression with normal and double exponential priors as forecasting methods based on large panels of time series. We show that, empirically, these forecasts are highly correlated with principal component forecasts and that they perform equally well for a wide range...

Recent years have seen a major structural break in trade relations between West European countries and the former Eastern bloc. Austria experienced a disproportionately large bilateral trade creation with these countries. In this paper we take a closer look at the impact this trade growth has...