The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

The paper examines the integration strategy laid down in the Delors Committee Report. It focuses on two issues: Is a comprehensive conceptual framework for monetary coordination in Europe needed already in Stage One, and how could it be designed? What is the rationale for a training period for...

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...