Central bank policy suffers from time-inconsistency when facing a banking crisis: A bailout is optimal ex post but ex ante it should be limited to control moral hazard. Dollarization provides a credible commitment not to help at the cost of not helping even when it would be ex ante optimal to do...

Testing the hypothesis that international equity market correlation increases in volatile times is a difficult exercise and misleading results have often been reported in the past because of a spurious relationship between correlation and volatility. This paper focuses on extreme correlation,...

This paper relates the volatility of the (trade-weighted) effective real exchange rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy. The theoretical part presents an intertemporal monetary model with nominal labour (factor) market rigidities. Both monetary and aggregate supply shocks are shown...

The paper analyzes foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order...

This Paper explores the implications of different strategies for financing the fiscal costs of twin crises in inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits: (ii) there...

This Paper addresses two questions: (i) how do governments actually pay for the fiscal costs associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different financing methods for post-crisis rates of inflation and depreciation? We study these questions using a general...

Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. The volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as money and output, does not change very much across exchange rate regimes, however. This suggests that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be...

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations...

A Real Business Cycle model of the UK is developed to account for the behaviour of UK nonstationary macro data. The model is tested by the method of indirect inference, bootstrapping the errors to generate 95% confidence limits for a VECM representation of the data; we find the model can explain...