This paper studies German bank lending during the Asian and Russian crises, using a bank level data set from the Deutsche Bundesbank. Our aim is to gain more insight into the pattern of German bank lending during financial crises in emerging markets. We find that German banks reacted to the...

Testing the hypothesis that international equity market correlation increases in volatile times is a difficult exercise and misleading results have often been reported in the past because of a spurious relationship between correlation and volatility. This paper focuses on extreme correlation,...

This paper relates the volatility of the (trade-weighted) effective real exchange rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy. The theoretical part presents an intertemporal monetary model with nominal labour (factor) market rigidities. Both monetary and aggregate supply shocks are shown...

While the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth has long been an issue of key importance in international macroeconomics, it has received renewed attention in recent years, owing to weaker growth rates and the debate on “currency wars”. However, in spite of its prevalence in the...

The paper analyzes foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order...

We develop a framework for studying the choice of exchange rate regime in an open economy where the local currency is vulnerable to speculative attacks. The framework makes it possible to study, for the first time, the strategic interaction between the ex ante choice of regime and the...

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not...

The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations...

We ask when currency carry trades are associated with destabilizing dynamics in the foreign exchange market, and investigate the role of monetary policy rules in setting of such dynamics. In a model where the exchange rate has a long-term fundamental anchor, we find that carry trades can be...