This paper proposes a novel international transmission mechanism based on the assumption of deep habits. The term deep habits stands for a preference specification according to which consumers form habits on a good-by-good basis. Under deep habits, firms face more elastic demand functions in...

In this Paper we test empirically the validity of the law of one price using data for five major bilateral US dollar exchange rates and nine goods sectors during the recent floating exchange rate regime since the early 1970s. Using threshold autoregressive models, we find strong evidence of...

Testing the hypothesis that international equity market correlation increases in volatile times is a difficult exercise and misleading results have often been reported in the past because of a spurious relationship between correlation and volatility. This paper focuses on extreme correlation,...

This paper relates the volatility of the (trade-weighted) effective real exchange rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy. The theoretical part presents an intertemporal monetary model with nominal labour (factor) market rigidities. Both monetary and aggregate supply shocks are shown...

The paper analyzes foreign investment and asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. The model endogenizes the process of learning by foreign investors facing a potentially opportunistic government, which chooses strategically the timing of a policy reversal in order...

This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the short-horizon predictive ability of economic fundamentals and forward premia on monthly exchange rate returns in a framework that allows for volatility timing. We implement Bayesian methods for estimation and ranking of a set of empirical...

We propose an exchange rate model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rate movements and thus in some measure resolves Rogoff’s (1996) purchasing power parity puzzle. Our analysis reconciles the well-known difficulties in beating the...

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country’s net foreign asset position (‘external wealth’) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between...

The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations...

In mid-2008, the real effective exchange rate of the dollar was close to its minimum level for the past 4 decades. At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and current account deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, would contribute to a further accumulation...