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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States

Smets, Frank; Tsatsaronis, Kostas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997

This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United … spread in that country. However, the main reason for the stronger leading indicator property in Germany is the positive … at lag four in Germany and almost nothing in the United States. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123911

Monetary Discipline, Germany, and the European Monetary System

Melitz, Jacques - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987

Germany in the EMS and is consistent with the evidence that membership has induced several countries to disinflate more than …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791579

With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's 'Stock Market Bubble' in 1927 and the Slide into Depression

Voth, Hans-Joachim - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2002

Asset price inflation presents central banks with a puzzle. I examine the case of Germany, 1925-7, when the Reichsbank …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792124

Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy

Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, and after decades of relative neglect, the importance of the financial system and its episodic crises as drivers of macroeconomic outcomes has attracted fresh scrutiny from academics, policy makers, and practitioners. Theoretical advances are following a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213304

Comparing Inflation and Price Level Targeting: the Role of Forward Guidance and Transparency

Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

We examine global dynamics under learning in New Keynesian models with price level targeting that is subject to the zero lower bound. The role of forward guidance is analyzed under transparency about the policy rule. Properties of transparent and non-transparent regimes are compared to each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011213315

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Endogenous Public Debt

Luk, Paul; Vines, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

This paper uses a New Keynesian framework to study the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, in response to an inflation shock when the policymaker acts with commitment. We first show that, in the simplest New Keynesian model, fiscal policy plays no part in the optimal policy response,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276383

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Inflation Persistence

Luk, Paul; Vines, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

This paper studies a simple New-Keynesian model of fiscal and monetary policy coordination when the policymaker acts under commitment. With a New Keynesian Phillips curve it is optimal to control inflation only through the use of monetary policy. But, when price-setters use a Steinsson (2003)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276384

Bubbles and Central Banks: Historical Perspectives

Brunnermeier, Markus K; Schnabel, Isabel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

This paper reviews some of the most prominent asset price bubbles from the past 400 years and documents how central banks (or other institutions) reacted to those bubbles. The historical evidence suggests that the emergence of bubbles is often preceded or accompanied by an expansionary monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011249380

Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation

Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One explanation explored in Barsky and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016247

A Gains from Trade Perspective on Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Beaudry, Paul; Portier, Franck - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009221567

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