Showing 1 - 10 of 197
From 1970 to 1985, Israel experienced high inflation. It rose in three jumps to new plateaus and eventually exceeded … of fallen bank shares caused the last big jump in inflation that occurred in October 1983. Bank shares had just collapsed …. Because that was foreseen, inflation immediately rose as predicted by the unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667001
rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted here-to-fore quiescent inflation expectations and …, inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stagflation of the 1970s would have been avoided. Indeed, we find … that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing both inflation and unemployment. We argue that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662108
New-Keynesian models are characterized by the presence of expectations as explanatory variables. To use these models for policy evaluation, the econometrician must estimate the parameters of expectation terms. Standard estimation methods have several drawbacks, including possible lack of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662376
The paper addresses the Kydland and Prescott (1977) argument that the optimal policy in models with rational expectations is time-inconsistent. This, it is argued, undermines the credibility of the optimal policy in the eyes of the private sector, who will expect the policy-maker to reoptimize....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666643
The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666725
section, various underpinnings of the "Phillips curve" relation between inflation and output are reviewed. All are concluded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666800
This paper investigates the relation between the dynamics of inflation and international monetary and exchange rate … the Bretton Woods gold dollar standard appear to be associated with negligible persistence of inflation, while regimes of … managed exchange rates are associated with very high persistence of inflation. The interwar period is associated with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666896
This paper proposes and applies to the London Business School (LBS) model a general methodology for the design of macroeconomic policy using large rational expectations models. Design proceeds through the following four stages: first, a small, linear representation of the original large,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666971
If private sector agents hold rational expectations, they will predict any future policy switches. Discounting the announced optimal policies, if they are not credible, will lead to a response which deprives the government of any incentive to renege on previous announcements and of the benefits...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788898
impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in Japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788995