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Productivity, Wages and Prices Inside and Outside of Manufacturing in the US, Japan and Europe
Gordon, Robert J - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1986
. Results are presented for the United States, Japan, and an aggregate called "Europe" consisting of eleven European economies … indices for Japan and Europe. If anything, real wages in Europe and Japan were too flexible rather than too rigid, in the … sense that much of the increase in wage gap indices in Europe during 1968-70 and in Japan in 1973-74 can be interpreted as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789135
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Non-Falsified Expectations and General Equilibrium Asset Pricing: The Power of the Peso
Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Donaldson, John B - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998
We discuss the extent to which the expectation of a rare event, not present in the usual post-war sample data, but not rationally excludable from the set of possibilities – the peso problem – can affect the behaviour of rational agents and the characteristics of market equilibrium. To that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124369
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Business Cycle Dependent Unemployment Insurance
Andersen, Torben M; Svarer, Michael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
The consequences of business cycle contingencies in unemployment insurance systems are considered in a search …-matching model allowing for shifts between "good" and "bad" states of nature. We show that not only is there an insurance argument …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005036240
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The Macroeconomic Impact of Flexible Labour Contracts: An Application to Spain
Bentolila, Samuel; Saint-Paul, Gilles - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1991
This paper constructs a theoretical model to study the effects on employment of the introduction of flexible labour contracts (i.e. with low firing costs), which occurred in many European countries in the 1980s, which it then tests on Spanish data. The model predicts that such contracts increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504305
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Trade in the Triad: How Easy is the Access to Large Markets?
Fontagne, Lionel; Mayer, Thierry; Zignago, Soledad - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
called the Triad: The United States, the EU and Japan. We focus on measuring possible asymmetries in market access between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504710
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The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy: Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning and Expectations
Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
We develop an estimated model of the US economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behaviour of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policy-makers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662108
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Factor Analysis in a New-Keynesian Model
Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E A; Henry, Jérôme; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
New-Keynesian models are characterized by the presence of expectations as explanatory variables. To use these models for policy evaluation, the econometrician must estimate the parameters of expectation terms. Standard estimation methods have several drawbacks, including possible lack of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662376
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Does Time Inconsistency Matter?
Levine, Paul L - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1988
The paper addresses the Kydland and Prescott (1977) argument that the optimal policy in models with rational expectations is time-inconsistent. This, it is argued, undermines the credibility of the optimal policy in the eyes of the private sector, who will expect the policy-maker to reoptimize....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666643
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Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the €/US$ Rate
Bofinger, Peter; Schmidt, Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666725
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Rational Expectations and Monetary Policy
Minford, Patrick - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1986
This survey essay considers how rational expectations have changed our evaluation of monetary policy. In the first section, various underpinnings of the "Phillips curve" relation between inflation and output are reviewed. All are concluded to be products of particular institutional set-ups whose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666800