Showing 1 - 10 of 213
International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country’s net foreign asset position through the “valuation channel” of external adjustment, namely capital gains and losses on the country’s external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011266533
The paper presents new stylized facts on the direction of capital flows. We find (i) international capital flows net of government debt and/or official aid are positively correlated with growth; (ii) sovereign debt flows are negatively correlated with growth only if debt is financed by another...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009364326
This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008502576
We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008550324
This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, drawing on a larger country sample than in previous studies and using panel regressions, vector auto-regressions, and an analysis of large fiscal and external adjustments. On average, a strengthening in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468562
Before the crisis, there were strong arguments for reducing global imbalances. As a result of the crisis, there have been significant changes in saving and investment patterns across the world and imbalances have narrowed considerably. Does this mean that imbalances are a problem of the past?...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468701
This paper analyses the transmission of productivity shocks across countries and how the responses of investment and the current account differ depending on the degree of propagation of the shocks. We explore both issues by estimating a structural model for Japan, the United States and Europe....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123648
Recent global imbalances and large gross external financial movements have raised interest in modeling the relationship between international financial market structure and capital flows. This paper constructs a model in which the composition of national portfolios is an essential element in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123673
Most analyses of the macroeconomic adjustment required to correct global imbalances ignore net exports of new varieties of goods and services and do not account for firms' net entry in the product market. In this paper we revisit the macroeconomics of trade adjustment in the context of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124064
The early 1980s marked the onset of two striking features of the current world macro-economy: the fall in US business cycle volatility (the “great moderation”) and the large and persistent US external imbalance. In this paper we argue that an external imbalance is a natural consequence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124267