account for 12% of GDP variance and real house prices for 9%). Shocks to the term spread or to leverage (credit-to-GDP ratio …

, the now infamous credit to GDP chart. We compare the conclusions reached in the literature after the crisis with the … results that could have been drawn from an ex ante analysis. We show that, even though credit affects the business cycle in …

If some consumers are liquidity-constrained, aggregate consumption should be ‘excessively sensitive’ to credit … conditions as well as to income. Moreover, the ‘excess sensitivity’ may vary over time. Using data for Canada, France, Japan, the … United Kingdom and the United States, we find a substantial impact of credit aggregates on consumption in all countries …

for the support of output through subsidies, another for similar support through credit. The first argument relates to the …

changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these …

combines 2008 changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages …