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Moral and Social Constraints to Strategic Default on Mortgages

Guiso, Luigi; Sapienza, Paola; Zingales, Luigi - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

We use survey data to study American households’ propensity to default when the value of their mortgage exceeds the … value of their house even if they can afford to pay their mortgage (strategic default). We find that 26% of the existing … the house. Yet, 17% of households would default, even if they can afford to pay their mortgage, when the equity shortfall …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039578

Credit Standards and Segregation

Ouazad, Amine; Rancière, Romain - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

How do credit standards on the mortgage market affect neighbourhood choice and the resulting level of urban segregation …-2006 mortgage credit boom on the level of school segregation. Census tract racial composition is strongly correlated with the racial … composition of the 10 closest schools in the cross section. Matching a national data set of mortgage originations with annual …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008873328

High Public Debt in Currency Crises: Fundamentals versus Signalling Effects

Benigno, Pierpaolo; Missale, Alessandro - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

This Paper examines how public debt, government credibility and external circumstances affect the probability of exchange rate devaluations in a three-period open-economy version of the Barro-Gordon (1983) model with nominal public debt. Public debt creates a link between current and future...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791395

The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation

Favero, Carlo A.; Kaminska, Iryna; Söderström, Ulf - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

This paper brings together two strands of the empirical macro literature: the reduced-form evidence that the yield spread helps in forecasting output and the structural evidence on the difficulties of estimating the effect of monetary policy on output in an intertemporal Euler equation. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791499

Why are Long Rates Sensitive to Monetary Policy?

Ellingsen, Tore; Söderström, Ulf - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

We use a quantitative model of the US economy to analyse the response of long-term interest rates to monetary policy, and compare the model results with empirical evidence. We find that the model can explain the strong and time-varying yield curve response to monetary policy innovations found in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792395

Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates

Söderlind, Paul; Söderström, Ulf; Vredin, Anders - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003

Recent research suggests that commonly estimated dynamic Taylor rules augmented with a lagged interest rate imply too much predictability of interest rate changes compared with yield curve evidence. We show that this is not sufficient proof against the Taylor rule: the result could be driven by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123552

Should the Euro Area be Run as a Closed Economy?

Favero, Carlo A.; Giavazzi, Francesco - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has created a new economic area, larger and closer with respect to the rest of the world. Area-specific shocks are thus more important in EMU than country-specific shocks used to be in the previous states, e.g. in Germany. It is thus not surprising...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136545

In Search of a Theory of Debt Management

Faraglia, Elisa; Marcet, Albert; Scott, Andrew - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136601

Term Structure Forecasting: No-Arbitrage Restrictions vs Large Information Set

Favero, Carlo A.; Niu, Linlin; Sala, Luca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

This paper addresses the issue of forecasting the term structure. We provide a unified state-space modelling framework that encompasses different existing discrete-time yield curve models. Within such framework we analyze the impact on forecasting performance of two crucial modelling choices,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497801

The bond yield conundrum: alternative hypotheses and the state of the economy

Eijffinger, Sylvester C W; Mahieu, Ronald J; Raes, Louis - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

We study the bond yield conundrum in a macro-finance framework. Building upon a flexible and non-structural macro-finance model, we test the hypothesis that the bond yield conundrum is connected to various sources of uncertainty in the financial markets. Moreover we explicitly test for the role...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008682889