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Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model
Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies … episode price-setting firms' expect inflation to be highly persistent and opt for backward-looking indexation. As the central … that choose the rate for indexation also re-assess the likelihood that announced inflation targets determine steady …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114241
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Monetary Policy and the Fisher Effect
Söderlind, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
Historical estimates of the Fisher effect and the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This paper uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how central bank preferences (and thereby monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497757
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The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility
Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994
A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661572
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Monetary Policy Shocks and Portfolio Choice
Fratzscher, Marcel; Saborowski, Christian; Straub, Roland - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
The paper shows that monetary policy shocks exert a substantial effect on the size and composition of capital flows and the trade balance for the United States, with a 100 basis point easing raising net capital inflows and lowering the trade balance by 1% of GDP, and explaining about 20-25% of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692318
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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States
Smets, Frank; Tsatsaronis, Kostas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123911
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A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing
Fratzscher, Marcel; Lo Duca, Marco; Straub, Roland - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy measures since 2007. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083739
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Time-inconsistency, Democracy and Optimal Contingent Rules
Minford, Patrick - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993
Following Kydland and Prescott's (1977) seminal paper on time-inconsistency, a large literature has explored possible frameworks within which monetary policy could overcome this problem -- neatly illustrated in Barro and Gordon's (1983) model. In a stochastic world there appears to be a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114176
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Free Trade Vs. Strategic Trade: A Peek into Pandora's Box
Grossman, Gene; Maggi, Giovanni - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998
We investigate whether a welfare-maximizing government ought to pursue a programme of strategic trade intervention or instead commit itself to free trade when, in the former case, domestic firms will have an opportunity to manipulate the government’s choice of the level of intervention....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656355
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Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4
Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994
The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden between 1992 and 1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123801
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The Information Content of the Term Structure: Evidence for Germany
Gerlach, Stefan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1995
This paper studies the usefulness of spreads between interest rates of different maturities as indicators of future inflation and real interest rates in Germany, using monthly data from the first quarter of 1967. The central results are two-fold. First, the interest rate spreads considered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067498