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Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation
Galí, Jordi; Smets, Frank; Wouters, Rafael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083346
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The European Business Cycle
Artis, Michael J; Krolzig, Hans-Martin; Toro, Juan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
This paper deals with the existence and identification of a common European Growth Cycle. It has recently been argued that the formation of a monetary union creates in itself a tendency for business cycle symmetry to emerge. If this holds for the European monetary Union and the quasi-union of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114243
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Unemployment and Inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012
Gerlach, Stefan; Lydon, Reamonn; Stuart, Rebecca - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
We study the determination of Irish inflation between 1926 and 2012. The difference between unemployment and the NAIRU …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272719
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Firm Leverage and Unemployment during the Great Recession
Giroud, Xavier; Mueller, Holger M - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
We argue that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the propagation of shocks during the Great Recession. Using establishment-level data, we show that firms that tightened their debt capacity in the run-up (“high-leverage firms”) exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252614
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What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?
Burda, Michael C; Hunt, Jennifer - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
Germany experienced an even deeper fall in GDP in the Great Recession than the United States, with little employment loss. Employers’ reticence to hire in the preceding expansion, associated in part with a lack of confidence it would last, contributed to an employment shortfall equivalent to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009246610
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Returns to Education across Europe
Glocker, Daniela; Steiner, Viktor - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
the indirect wage effect resulting from lower unemployment risks and shorter spells in unemployment associated with higher … accounting for the effects of unemployment on individual wages using EU-SILC data. Across countries we find a high variation of … the effect of education on unemployment duration. Overall, the returns to education are estimated to be the highest in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293660
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Fiscal Multipliers Over the Business Cycle
Michaillat, Pascal - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper develops a theory characterizing the effects of fiscal policy on unemployment over the business cycle. The … theory is based on a model of equilibrium unemployment in which jobs are rationed in recessions. Fiscal policy in the form of … government spending on public-sector jobs reduces unemployment, especially during recessions: the fiscal multiplier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009324257
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The Stock Market Crash of 2008 Caused the Great Recession: Theory and Evidence
Farmer, Roger E A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
and the unemployment rate in U.S. data since 1929. Second, it compares a new model of the economy developed in recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009351524
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Hyperbolic Discounting and Positive Optimal Inflation
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
The Friedman rule states that steady-state welfare is maximized when there is deflation at the real rate of interest. Recent work by Khan et al. (2003) uses a richer model but still finds deflation optimal. In an otherwise standard new Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643503
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Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment and the Belief Function
Farmer, Roger E A - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
This paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in a monetary version of Farmer’s (2009) model in … which there are multiple equilibrium unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692320