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Riding the South Sea Bubble
Temin, Peter; Voth, Hans-Joachim - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004
The efficient markets hypothesis implies that, in the presence of rational investors, bubbles cannot develop. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136583
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Theoretical Notes on Bubbles and the Current Crisis
Martin, Alberto; Ventura, Jaume - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show how the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008684673
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Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Garicano, Luis; Santos, Tano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
We study the mechanisms through which the adoption of the Euro delayed, rather than advanced, economic reforms in the Euro zone periphery and led to the deterioration of important institutions in these countries. We show that the abandonment of the reform process and the institutional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084343
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The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil
Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
eliminates speculation as an explanation of the 2003-08 oil price surge. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530341
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Carry Trades, Monetary Policy and Speculative Dynamics
Plantin, Guillaume; Shin, Hyun Song - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We ask when currency carry trades are associated with destabilizing dynamics in the foreign exchange market, and investigate the role of monetary policy rules in setting of such dynamics. In a model where the exchange rate has a long-term fundamental anchor, we find that carry trades can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854487
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The International Monetary System: An Analysis of Alternative Regimes
Miller, Marcus; Williamson, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1988
This is an exercise in the positive economics of alternative monetary regimes. The behaviour of output and prices is compared using a stochastic specification which allows asymptotic variances to be obtained without difficulty. Free floating of exchange rates together with national money supply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281288
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Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?
De Grauwe, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1989
In this paper we analyze issues of symmetry and asymmetry in the workings of the EMS. We first measure how interest rates react to speculative disturbances. We find that despite the fact that speculative shocks have usually forced the offshore interest rates of the weak currencies to increase by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281408
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Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories
Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation. Notwithstanding some differences, overall these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083911
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Speculation in the Oil Market
Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient … demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008, and its subsequent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084143
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The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?
Fattouh, Bassam; Kilian, Lutz; Mahadeva, Lavan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major … empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the … existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084244