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Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the €/US$ Rate

Bofinger, Peter; Schmidt, Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666725

The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself

Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

The carry trade is the investment strategy of going long in high-yield target currencies and short in low-yield funding currencies. Recently, this naive trade has seen very high returns for long periods, followed by large crash losses after large depreciations of the target currencies. Based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008491718

The Crisis in the Foreign Exchange Market

Melvin, Michael; Taylor, Mark P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

We provide an overview of the important events of the recent global financial crisis and their implications for exchange rates and market dynamics. Our goal is to catalogue all that was truly of major importance in this episode. We also construct a quantitative measure of crises that allows for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528525

A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention of Exchange Rates

Payne, Richard; Vitale, Paolo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2001

We study the effects of sterilized intervention operations executed on behalf of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) using tick-by-tick transaction data between 1985-95.We extend preliminary analysis conducted by Fischer and Zurlinden (1999) by matching these data with intra-day indicative exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497953

Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices

Bofinger, Peter; Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504428

Procurement with specialized firms

Boone, Jan; Schottmüller, Christoph - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper analyzes optimal procurement mechanisms in a setting where the procurement agency has incomplete information concerning the firms' cost functions and cares about quality as well as price. Low type firms are cheaper than high type firms in providing low quality but more expensive when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385768

Banking Competition and European Integration

Vives, Xavier - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1990

We assess how banking competition will be affected by the process of deregulation and integration in European financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666400

Deregulation of Business

Yakovlev, Evgeny; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

What determines the enforcement of deregulation reform of business activities? What are the outcomes of deregulation … variation. 2) The enforcement of deregulation reform was better in regions with a transparent government, low corruption, better … substantial positive effect of deregulation on net entry and small business employment and no effect on pollution and public …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667109

Firms Merge in Response to Constraints

Boone, Jan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006

Theoretical IO models of horizontal mergers and acquisitions make the critical assumption of efficiency gains. Without efficiency gains, these models predict either that mergers are not profitable or that mergers are welfare reducing. A problem here is the empirical observation that on average...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789008

The Competition Between Competition Rules

Sinn, Hans-Werner - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999

profits. Instead of such an equilibrium, a deregulation race is likely to emerge in which all but the last country repeal … their antitrust laws. The deregulation race results in a chain of Stackelberg leadership positions taken over by national …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791228