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velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496458
to an end. This paper offers evidence that the decrease in output volatility still remains in force despite the GR and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083709
To generate big responses of unemployment to productivity changes, researchers have reconfigured matching models in various ways: by elevating the utility of leisure, by making wages sticky, by assuming alternating-offer wage bargaining, by introducing costly acquisition of credit, or by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201357
misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar … more ‘extractive’ institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises … appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136626
.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive … and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114221
What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667076
In this Paper we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro-area inflation and GDP growth. Our evaluation is based on using the variables in the ECB euro area model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662386
We study the pricing of political uncertainty in a general equilibrium model of government policy choice. We find that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in poorer economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320399
This paper proposes a panel data approach to modeling the risk premium in the term structure of interest rates. Specifically, we develop a fixed maturity/random time effects model that implies a time-invariant one-factor model. Our approach allows us to disentangle risk premia and unexpected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123603
A popular suggestion among emerging or transition economies is to 'dollarize' or 'euro-ize'; that is to adopt the currency of a larger, richer neighbour in order to import the monetary discipline and financial stability of that neighbour. This paper examines the pros and cons of that suggestion...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123613