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Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models

Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used to identify demand and supply shocks...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528526

The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Kilian, Lutz; Murphy, Daniel P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530341

A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s

Barsky, Robert; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important concern among policymakers and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major oil price increases of 1973/74 and 1979/80. This paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124085

Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Lee, Thomas K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015

Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145393

On the Impact of Forward Contract Obligations in Multi-Unit Auctions

de Frutos, Maria-Angeles; Fabra, Natalia - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

Several regulatory authorities worldwide have recently imposed forward contract obligations on electricity producers as … bidding in electricity markets, or in any other auction-based market. For this purpose, we introduce forward contracts in a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136602

Modelling Energy Demand and Household Welfare Using Micro-Data

Baker, Paul; Blundell, Richard William; Micklewright, John - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987

, electricity and a composite good, "other fuels". This composite good is subject to such large measurement errors in the data set … and electricity consumption and it is shown how the model's structural parameters, i.e. those of household preferences … presented and the diversity of implied price and income elasticities is emphasized. Both gas and electricity are found to be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497752

What Really Matters in Auction Design

Klemperer, Paul - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

discuss radiospectrum and football TV-rights auctions, electricity markets, and takeover battles), and the Anglo-Dutch auction …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114514

Elected Versus Appointed Regulators: Theory And Evidence

Besley, Timothy J.; Coate, Stephen - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2000

This paper contrasts direct election with political appointment of regulators. When regulators are appointed, regulatory policy becomes bundled with other policy issues for which the appointing politicians are responsible. Since regulatory issues are not salient for most voters, regulatory...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662098

Competition in Electricity Supply: Will '1998' be Worth it?

Green, Richard; McDaniel, Tanga - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1998

Starting in 1998, the electricity market in England and Wales will be opened up to full competition, and all consumers … will be allowed to choose their electricity supplier. This promises to result in lower prices, but there will be additional … are likely to be large transfers from electricity companies (and the coal industry) to consumers, but the companies lose …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662134

Energy Policy Issues after Privatisation

Newbery, David M G - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1986

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how energy policy should respond to the changes in the organisation of energy sector associated with privatisation. The paper begins with a brief review of how energy policy was perceived before the 1973 oil shock, and the lessons learned from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666940