Jordà, Òscar; Knüppel, Malte; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...