shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s. Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from … related to the oil market played a major role in causing both the major oil price increases of the 1970s and stagflation in … monetary policy makers, causing stagflation in the process. This paper reviews the evidence for these two main explanations …

The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important concern among policymakers … and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major … of the causal mechanism generating stagflation as is often thought. We provide a model that can explain the bulk of …

Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive inflation, reduced productivity … none of the more recent oil price shocks has been associated with stagflation in the US economy, a major reason for the … stagflation of the 1970s. We show that this is not the case. …

, inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stagflation of the 1970s would have been avoided. Indeed, we find … rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted here-to-fore quiescent inflation expectations and … that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing both inflation and unemployment. We argue that …

The volatile data for inflation, output, and interest rates in the United Kingdom prior to the 1990s, and the relative … macroeconomic stability associated with inflation targeting, provide a rich basis for discriminating between rival explanations for … the outbreak of stagflation. We examine alternative hypotheses with a New Keynesian model of aggregate demand and …

expectations of the time-paths of future short interest rates, monetary policy, inflation rates and currency depreciation rates …