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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States
Smets, Frank; Tsatsaronis, Kostas - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United … spread in that country. However, the main reason for the stronger leading indicator property in Germany is the positive … at lag four in Germany and almost nothing in the United States. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123911
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Swiss Monetary Policy, 2000-2009
Genberg, Hans; Gerlach, Stefan - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
In January 2000 the Swiss National Bank adopted a new monetary policy framework incorporating a price stability objective defined as (any rate of) CPI inflation below 2 percent. We contrast this framework with inflation targeting strategies and review the SNB’s policy decisions since its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468642
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Money in Monetary Policy Design under Uncertainty: The Two-Pillar Phillips Curve versus ECB-Style Cross-Checking
Beck, Günter; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. In this paper, we explore possible justifications. The case against including money in the central bank's interest rate rule is based on a standard model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792117
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Should the Euro Area be Run as a Closed Economy?
Favero, Carlo A.; Giavazzi, Francesco - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
previous states, e.g. in Germany. It is thus not surprising that the models built by the staff of the European Central Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136545
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Money in Monetary Policy Design: A Formal Characterization of ECB-Style Cross-Checking
Beck, Günter; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
The European Central Bank has assigned a special role to money in its two pillar strategy and has received much criticism for this decision. The case against including money in the central bank's interest rate rule is based on a standard model of the monetary transmission process that underlies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497931
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Money in monetary policy design: Monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model
Beck, Günter; Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009
In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008577801
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Politics and Monetary Policy
Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010
How and why do politicians’ preferences about monetary policy differ from the interest rates set by independent central banks? Looking at the European Central Bank, the paper shows that politicians, on average, favor significantly lower interest rates. Three factors explain the different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008784739
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Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model
Wieland, Volker - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
This paper introduces adaptive learning and endogenous indexation in the New-Keynesian Phillips curve and studies disinflation under inflation targeting policies. The analysis is motivated by the disinflation performance of many inflation-targeting countries, in particular the gradual Chilean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114241
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Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting
Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013
My lessons from six years of practical policy-making include (1) being clear about and not deviating from the mandate of flexible inflation targeting (price stability and the highest sustainable employment), including keeping average inflation over a longer period on target; (2) not adding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083489
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The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility
Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994
A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661572