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Does Immigration Affect the Phillips Curve? Some Evidence for Spain
Bentolila, Samuel; Dolado, Juan J.; Jimeno, Juan F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
Spain over this period. We show that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is shifted by immigration if natives’ and immigrants …’ labour supply or bargaining power differ. Estimation of the curve for Spain indicates that the fall in unemployment since …The Phillips curve has flattened in Spain over 1995-2006: unemployment has fallen by 15 percentage points, with roughly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791807
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A Century of Inflation Forecasts
D'Agostino, Antonello; Surico, Paolo - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We investigate inflation predictability in the United States across the monetary regimes of the XXth century. The forecasts based on money growth and output growth were significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on past inflation only during the regimes associated with neither a clear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008873332
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Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model
Galí, Jordi; Smets, Frank; Wouters, Rafael - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009024487
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Hyperbolic Discounting and Positive Optimal Inflation
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
The Friedman rule states that steady-state welfare is maximized when there is deflation at the real rate of interest. Recent work by Khan et al. (2003) uses a richer model but still finds deflation optimal. In an otherwise standard new Keynesian model we show that, if households have hyperbolic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643503
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Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Economy with Inflation Persistence
Luk, Paul; Vines, David - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
This paper studies a simple New-Keynesian model of fiscal and monetary policy coordination when the policymaker acts under commitment. With a New Keynesian Phillips curve it is optimal to control inflation only through the use of monetary policy. But, when price-setters use a Steinsson (2003)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011276384
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Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
-unemployment tradeoff for Spain and examine how recent policy changes have affected it. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788925
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The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
Orphanides, Athanasios; van Norden, Simon - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005
A stable predictive relationship between inflation and the output gap, often referred to as a Phillips curve, provides the basis for countercyclical monetary policy in many models. In this paper, we evaluate the usefulness of alternative univariate and multivariate estimates of the output gap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791223
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Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis
Galí, Jordi; Gertler, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791238
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The British Labour Market in Different Economic Eras, 1857-1938
Hatton, Timothy J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1984
In this paper a simple model of aggregate supply and demand for labour is developed which includes a "surprise" supply function and imposes labour market clearing. This model is estimated on British data for 1857 to 1938, an important period for the original Phillips curve estimates. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791417
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The Return of the Long-Run Phillips Curve
Graham, Liam; Snower, Dennis J. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2003
This paper integrate microfoundations of wage staggering into a simple dynamic general equilibrium model with rational expectations. In this context we show that a permanent increase in money growth leads to a permanent increase in the rate of inflation and a permanent reduction in the level of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791529