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Leaving Home and Living Alone: An Historical Perspective

Wall, Richard - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1987

continuities in household composition. In particular, households in the pre-industrial era were no more likely than present … resulted in a household composition which resembles that produced by early widowhood in the seventeenth century. Nor has the … to illustrate household types. The paper concludes by suggesting that a standard set of tables should be agreed upon and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497727

Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-area

Palladini, Giorgia; Portes, Richard - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This analysis tests the price discovery relationship between sovereign CDS premia and bond yield spreads on the same reference entity. The theoretical no-arbitrage relationship between the two credit spreads is confronted with daily data from six Euro-area countries over the period 2004-2011. As...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009365646

The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several alternative gap estimates. It turns out that, despite some difference across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468583

The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468648

An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area

Giannone, Domenico; Henry, Jérôme; Lalik, Magdalena; … - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2010

This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008468678

How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?

Favero, Carlo A.; Pagano, Marco; von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008

The paper explores the determinants of yield differentials between sovereign bonds in the Euro area. There is a common trend in yield differentials, which is correlated with a measure of aggregate risk. In contrast, liquidity differentials display sizeable heterogeneity and no common factor. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124174

Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy

Darné, Olivier; Ferrara, Laurent - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

In addition to quantitative assessment of economic growth using econometric models, business cycle analyses have been proved to be helpful to practitioners in order to assess current economic conditions or to anticipate upcoming fluctuations. In this paper, we focus on the acceleration cycle in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061478

Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

Mönch, Emanuel; Uhlig, Harald - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2004

This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067594

Convergence and Anchoring of Yield Curves in the Euro Area

Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Gürkaynak, Refet S. - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007

We study the convergence of European bond markets and the anchoring of inflation expectations in euro area countries using high-frequency bond yield data for France, Germany, Italy and Spain. We find that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has led to substantial convergence in euro area sovereign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005067658

Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the euro Area

Favero, Carlo A.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2005

In this paper we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the euro area by comparing a set of procedures that rely on different information sets and econometric techniques. In particular, we consider ARMA models, VARs, small scale semi-structural models at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504314