Showing 1 - 10 of 701
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084671
Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136463
the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of … leading indicator based forecasts, and review the recent literature on the forecasting performance of leading indicators. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666459
index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting. We considered two models which allow forecasting based … univariate methods for forecasting inflation at one, three, six, and twelve months and industrial production at one and three … months. We find that financial variables do help forecasting inflation, but do not help forecasting industrial production. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789173
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661541
This paper studies the synchronization of output fluctuations in European regions and US counties. We extend the two component dynamic factor model à la Sargent and Sims (1977) by introducing an intermediate-level shock, which is common to all regions (counties) in each country (state), but it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667128
This Paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504237
This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530347
We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a … point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of … predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504253
This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504615