Trust in policy makers fluctuates significantly over the cycle and affects the transmission mechanism. Despite this it is absent from the literature. We build a monetary model embedding trust cycles; the latter emerge as an equilibrium phenomenon of a game-theoretic interaction between atomistic...

We analyze a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with an externality---through climate change---from using fossil energy. A central result of our paper is an analytical derivation of a simple formula for the marginal externality damage of emissions. This formula, which holds...

To the layperson, the upward trend in European unemployment is related to the slowdown in economic growth. We argue that the layperson’s view is correct. The increase in European unemployment and the slowdown in economic growth are related because they stem from a common cause: an excessively...

Before the early 1970s generous welfare states seemed to be consistent with high employment. Since then, there has been growing concern over disincentive effects of social insurance. This paper suggests that the problem may have arisen in part because European nations were in effect trying to...

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy...

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of deviations from competitive behaviour, both in product and in labour markets, in the determination of sectoral employment growth in Italy during the last forty years (1951-90). This is done with the help of a two-sector...

The paper presents the text of a lecture given at the Bank of England in December 2005 as the first in a series of lectures in memory of John Flemming. It provides a personal view of what the profession has learnt about currency unions as a result of the establishment and operation of the...

Does democracy promote economic development? We review recent attempts to addresses this question, which exploit the within-country variation associated with historical transitions in and out of democracy. The answer is positive, but depends - in a subtle way - on the details of democratic...

Calvo contracts, which are the basis of the current generation of New Keynesian models, widely include indexation to general inflation. We argue that the indexing formula should be expected inflation rather than lagged inflation. This optimises the welfare of the representative agent in a...