This paper challenges cross-sectional findings that democratic institutions have a negligible direct effect on economic growth. We employ a newly constructed data-set of permanent democratic transitions during the so-called Third Wave of Democratization and examine the within effect of...

This paper analyses the consequences for the standard import allocation models of assuming monopolistic competition on the supply side. Together with relative prices, this requires additional variables to capture product differentiation effects. To this end, we derive a composite price index...

This paper analyses the ownership structure emerging from the Russian privatization process, using information from a sample survey of 439 state and privately-owned manufacturing companies conducted in July 1994, just after the voucher programme was completed. The Russian ownership structure...

This Paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the United States, Japan and Germany, identified imposing restrictions on the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are motivated with priors on the parameters of a class of DSGE models with both real and nominal...

This Paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross-unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The set-up used is Bayesian, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest....

In this paper we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the euro area by comparing a set of procedures that rely on different information sets and econometric techniques. In particular, we consider ARMA models, VARs, small scale semi-structural models at...

This paper gives insights into the possible trade creating effects of service trade liberalization via Mode 4. In particular we expect that temporary movements of persons, like permanent movements, have the potential to reduce transaction costs for merchandise trade between home and host...

A tradition from Knight (1921) argues that more risk tolerant individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs, but perform worse. We test these predictions with two risk tolerance proxies: stock market participation and personal leverage. Using investment data for 400,000 individuals, we...

In this paper we estimate a New-Keynesian DSGE model with heterogeneity in price and wage setting behavior. In a recent study, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) develop a DSGE model, in which firms follow four different types of price setting schemes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule of...

We argue that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the propagation of shocks during the Great Recession. Using establishment-level data, we show that firms that tightened their debt capacity in the run-up (“high-leverage firms”) exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in...