This paper reviews the cross-country record of economic growth, using as organizing framework how economic theory has guided that empirical analysis. The paper argues that recent studies of economic growth - both empirical and theoretical - distinguish from previous work in three distinct ways:...

After the creation of the European Monetary Union (EMU), both the European Commission (EC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are focusing more and more on the evolution of the EMU as a whole, rather than on single member countries. A particularly relevant issue from a policy point of view is...

We investigate the dynamic relationship between the US dollar exchange rate and its fundamentals across different exchange rate regimes using data going back to the late 1800s or early 1900s for six industrialized countries. For these countries there is evidence of a long-run relation between...

Most model builders continue to treat their models as deterministic when forecasting, despite the fact that these models are composed of equations which are stochastic in nature. Deterministic solution methods ignore the stochastic information on the model structure and in addition produce...

This Paper proposes a vector equilibrium correction model of stock returns that exploits the information in the futures market, while allowing for both regime-switching behaviour and international spillovers across stock market indices. Using data for three major stock market indices since 1989,...

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. There is evidence, however, that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting...

I examine the effectiveness of exchange rate intervention within the context of a Markov-switching model for the real exchange rate. The probability of switching between stable and unstable regimes depends non-linearly upon the amount of intervention, the degree of misalignment and the duration...

This Paper attempts to draw lessons for the New Economy from what economists know about technology dissemination and economic growth. It argues that what is most notable about the New Economy is that it is knowledge-driven, not just in the sense that knowledge now assumes increasing importance...

This paper introduces state-owned enterprises into an endogenous-growth model with an expanding variety of inputs. It shows that, if state firms are less efficient than private firms in organizing labour and also in adopting new technology, the rate of innovation and, hence, also the rate of...