We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent …

group is dominant. We provide a test of a key aspect of our model using data from La Violencia, a political conflict in …

We compare the treatment of Colombia in large cross-country conflict datasets with the information of the detailed … magnitude of the Colombian conflict and to mischaracterize its dynamics. We suggest that conflict researchers should prioritize … the construction of more micro datasets that will facilitate detailed studies of conflict intensity and its dynamics. …

by which the allocation of prizes are governed by possibly repeated conflict. Our results contribute to an explanation … why. Compared to a single stage conflict, such structures can reduce the overall resources that are dissipated among the …

the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this … model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our …

We present a detailed, high-frequency dataset on the civil conflict in Colombia during the period 1988-2002. We briefly … pattern over time of conflict actions and intensity for all sides involved in the confrontation. We also describe the pattern …