changes in real GDP, the stock market, country credit ratings, and the exchange rate. We explore the linkages between these …

This paper compares the behavior of Euro-Area (EA) banks’ credit and reserves with those of US banks following … substantially higher than previously believed, in the EA). The paper shows that, although the behavior of banks’ credit following … differences in the relative importance of banking credit within the total amount of credit intermediated through banks and bond …

account for 12% of GDP variance and real house prices for 9%). Shocks to the term spread or to leverage (credit-to-GDP ratio …

We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output … are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles …, that is, expansions in credit that are backed not by expectations of future profits (i.e. fundamental collateral), but …

, the now infamous credit to GDP chart. We compare the conclusions reached in the literature after the crisis with the … results that could have been drawn from an ex ante analysis. We show that, even though credit affects the business cycle in …