Recently developed models of exchange rate dynamics emphasize the expectational effects of infrequent intervention. This paper proposes a stylized probabilistic framework in which such effects can be studied along with realistic concerns about the sustainability of the intervention policy. In...

Recent contribution emphasize that the presence of exchange rate target zones has important effects on the within-band behaviour of exchange rates. We show that the implications of available models are strikingly inconsistent with European Monetary System data, and we propose a model of...

In this paper we argue that the persistent global imbalances, the subprime crisis, and the volatile oil and asset prices that followed it, are tightly interconnected. They all stem from a global environment where sound and liquid financial assets are in scarce supply. Our story goes as follows:...

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

The observation that liquidations are concentrated in recessions has long been the subject of controversy. One view holds that liquidations are beneficial in that they result in increased restructuring. Another view holds that liquidations are privately inefficient and essentially wasteful. This...